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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2022-05-18T15:39Z
Model Inputs: 2022-05-17T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=534.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2022-05-17T11:54Z 2022-05-17T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=456.0, HalfAngle=19.0, Time21.5=2022-05-17T13:26Z 2022-05-17T09:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-6.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=335.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2022-05-17T15:40Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: (Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-20T05:30Z (+- 7 hours) Possible Kp index: (kp)90=3 (kp)135=4 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2022-05-20T03:13Z STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2022-05-22T04:30Z (Glancing Blow) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220517_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : The L1 solar wind signature at the time of the combined arrival of the 2022-05-17T05:48Z and 2022-05-17T06:48Z CMEs (2022-05-20T05:30Z) is expected to be dominated by SIR/HSS influences based on the model outputs. A weaker L1 arrival signature due to the 2022-05-17T09:23Z CME is projected for 2022-05-21T23:30Z and expected Kp of 2/3/4. The outputs of this 3-CME simulation are only slightly different from the outputs of the previous respective simulations. Submitted on 2022-05-18T15:59Z by Robert Loper No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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